After a buoyant recovery comes the adjustment as the UK economy slows and the office market comes up against the shortage of Grade A space. The question at the moment is whether the slowing of the momentum will last for a lengthy period or whether it merely reflects the current market and economic realities, particularly as worldwide confidence has dived. Many of the fundamentals still signal growth, such as the fact that the economy in London is bucking the national trend and growing at a reasonable rate. Also there remains demand for offices in all sub markets. For example, Colliers reports that availability in central London has declined to a 30 year low and Grade A space is down 17%.
Another way of looking at it is that net absorption in the West End in the first quarter of the year was at the fastest rate since 2005. Mike McKeith of Colliers commented: “Competition for Grade A space will remain the key driver of rental uplift during 2011. Absorption appears to have peaked in the city and is close to doing so in the West End. We expect to see increased absorption of good quality second hand space as Grade A becomes scarcer.” Tony Joyce of GVA notes that the “market has been quiet for some months although there are lots of requirements.” Even so, the serviced office market continues to perform strongly with officebroker.com reporting a 20% increase in deals in April-June compared with the same period a year ago.
That can be evaluated against figures from Capita Symonds that take up in the second quarter in central London was below average, with the City down 36% on the same period of 2010 and the West End down 9%. Another shift in the balance of the market is the increased amount of prime residential development which cost consultant EC Harris calculates at £21 billion over the next nine years in a total of 9,000 units.
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